The Ridge of Relevance

Prediction: The window to become a “new creator” is closing

Let’s rewind to 2020.

If you told me that by 2030, it would be impossible to launch as a new creator, I would have thought you were crazy.

My argument back to you would have sounded something like this, “You’re crazy! There is always a need for fresh faces and perspectives, larger creators become complacent and newer, hungrier ones come up. There will be new platforms that emerge with new winners and that cycle will never end, etc.”

That was before AI.

Now, my perspective on everything has changed.

It’s almost 2024. I believe there is a small window for the next ~5 years where establishing fandom as a creator and trust around your face/voice will become a massive advantage.

After 2029, let’s call it 2030, it will get 1000x harder.

Why?

The most valuable asset on the internet is an influencer’s face/voice connected to trust from an audience.

One you’ve reached the point where people know you and seek your opinions/endorsements, you’ve crossed over what I call the “Ridge of Relevance.”

As long as you don’t stop, or get cancelled, your likeness and brand will be an income producing entity forever.

But in 5 years, AI will be able to “create influencers” as good or better than the ones that currently exist today.

We’re already seeing cloning services like Metaphysic or examples like this AI supermodel that are pretty damn good.

By 2030, these things will be indistinguishable from human attempts.

I believe copyright/likeness laws will evolve to prohibit these AI services from cloning existing creators face/voice without their permission, but there will be nothing stopping the net new creation of them.

Let’s say today, pre-AI, there are 100,000 new creators that start out every year. And of them, maybe 1,000 are able to find a way to cut through the noise and make a sustainable living after 5 years of trying.

What happens when there are 100,000 new creators that launch every single week, 95% of which are created using AI tools making them more attractive, more compelling, more engaging, and more entertaining than the bottom 99% of human creators?

It will become almost impossible for a new human entrant to reach the Ridge of Relevance.

Now you can argue that this won’t happen or that the government will mandate a badge that say “human” vs “robot” and that people will only consume human-made stuff instead of AI-generated, etc.

But I doubt it.

And the only thing protecting people that have crossed the Ridge of Relevance (hopefully me by then) is that existing fans will have grown so used to seeing their favorite creator that the loyalty and consumption habits will be too strong to break.

We shall see.

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